By Jake Seiner / MiLB.com
There are a lot of ways to analyze baseball prospects. If you’re a Major League team, you have a staff of scouts who scour the country evaluating swings, deliveries, stuff, makeup and more. Teams are also performing statistical analysis, judging players on stats like strikeout rates, BAPIP, isolated power and more complicated, regression-based numbers that help find players who stand out from their peers. It’s a little tougher when you’re on the outside.
You can keep try to keep pace with the stats. Plenty are doing that — Chris Mitchell’s work over at Fangraphs is a fun follow right now — but with player development, numbers will never tell the full story. That’s particularly true in the lower levels of the Minors, where there are too many variables for the numbers to paint a complete picture.
The teams are working with information we don’t have. They know these players, their personalities and their growth better than we ever will — and they have no reason to share that knowledge. But if you look closely, you can infer some things from teams’ decisions. One great way to get a read on what teams think of their players is through player assignments. If a team pushes an 18-year-old to the full-season level, that signals the team thinks the player is advanced for his age, as only a handful of players that young break camp at the Class A level. If you’re looking for a quick and dirty way to pick out sleeper prospects, you could do worse than simply finding the youngest players teams entrust with full-season playing time.
With that in mind, I combed through the Opening Day rosters for all 30 Class A affiliates and picked out the following 18-year-olds who are breaking camp at the full-season level — plus a couple guys who are 19 by just a few days.
Orioles 3B Jomar Reyes, Delmarva – Reyes is the youngest position player breaking into full-season ball in the Minors, having just turned 18 on Feb. 20. Listed at 6-foot-3, 220, he’s closer to 6-foot-6 now and has added some weight, giving him massive raw power along with good feel for the barrel. His latest growth spurt has jeopardized his chances of staying at third base long-term, but for now, he’ll work with Ryan Minor — himself a 6-foot-7 former MLB third baseman — on remaining at the hot corner.
Braves LHP Ricardo Sanchez, Rome – Atlanta acquired Sanchez from the Angels for third baseman Kyle Kubitza this offseason and will push the Venezuelan to the full-season level right off the bat. Sanchez is the youngest player in the full-season Minor Leagues right now, as he doesn’t turn 18 until April 11. Sanchez has a promising fastball-curveball combination and struck out 43 in 38 2/3 Rookie-level Arizona League innings last year.
Braves SS Ozhaino Albies, Rome – Albies proved too good for the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2014, hitting .381 in 19 games before getting a bump to Class A Short-Season Danville. He batted .356/.429/.452 in 38 games with the D-Braves, setting himself up to jump to full-season ball in 2015. Albies has drawn Jimmy Rollins comparisons from the Braves as a 5-foot-9 switch-hitter who can play shortstop.
Braves OF Braxton Davidson, Rome – The eldest of Rome’s teenage trio, Davidson will turn 19 in June. Selected 32nd overall in the 2014 Draft, the 6-foot-2 outfielder had one of the most promising high school bats in last year’s Draft class. He posted mixed results in the GCL with a .243/.400/.324 slash line in 37 games, but could be a plus hitter with plus power if things click.
Cubs SS Gleyber Torres, South Bend – The first wave of the Cubs’ rebuild is on the cusp of graduating to the Majors. Further down the ladder, Torres may spearhead the next group. Torres won’t turn 19 until next December, making him the youngest player in the Midwest League this Opening Day. Signed for $1.7 million out of Venezuela, Torres hit .279/.372/.377 in the Arizona League last year before a seven-game stint with Boise to close the season. Torres has to prove he can stick at shortstop, but should remain in the middle infield at least and pack a bat that plays at either short or second.
Dodgers OF Alex Verdugo, Great Lakes – Verdugo was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in last year’s Draft out of Tucson, Arizona. The outfielder had an outstanding debut, batting .347/.423/.518 in 49 Rookie-level Arizona League games. He got a five-game look with Ogden in the Pioneer League at the end of the season. Verdugo was a two-way player in high school — he was also a prospect as a left-handed pitcher — but wanted to play everyday and got just shy of $1 million from the Dodgers to play the outfield, where he has average-or-better tools across the board, with his arm and hit tools showing the most promise.
D-backs SS Sergio Alcantara, Kane County – The switch-hitting Alcantara was handed a full-season assignment this year despite lackluster offensive numbers in two Rookie-level campaigns. In the Arizona League in 2013, he hit .243 without a homer. Last year, he followed up with a .244 average and one homer with Missoula in the Pioneer League. Offensively, the bright spot for Alcantara so far has been plate discipline — he walked in 15 percent of plate appearances in 2014. Listed at 5-foot-10, 150 pounds, Alcantara doesn’t pack much thump yet and likely never will, but he’s a no-doubt shortstop with one of the best arms in the lower Minors. If the bat comes along, Alcantara could blossom into a Top 100 prospect.
Indians LHP Justus Sheffield, Lake County – Sheffield had a rocky offseason that involved an arrest on charges of burglary. He ultimately pleaded guilty to charges of underage drinking and criminal trespass, but the Indians haven’t voiced concerns about his makeup. Instead, they’re sending the big southpaw to the Midwest League after he posted a 4.79 ERA in eight Arizona League games last summer.
Indians 1B Bobby Bradley, Lake County – Cleveland took Bradley in the third round of the 2014 Draft and send him to the Arizona League, where he was the circuit’s best hitter (and MVP) behind a .361/.426/.652 line. Bradley could grow into the rare plus-hit, plus-power slugger with enough stick to man first base with aplomb.
Cardinals OF Magneuris Sierra, Peoria – We’re bending the rules ever-so-slightly as Sierra actually turned 19 on April 7, but that’s so close to Opening Day, I can’t sell Sierra short. The Dominican outfielder dominated in the Gulf Coast League last year, batting .386/.434/.505. Sierra is a promising hitter and has the tools to be an outstanding defender in center. He’s not a huge power threat and doesn’t figure to be — he’s only 5-foot-11, 160 pounds. But he has excelled in every other facet so far in his brief career.
Brewers LHP Kodi Medeiros, Wisconsin – Medeiros was Milwaukee’s first-round pick last summer (12th overall) and struggled with his command in the Arizona League, posting a 7.13 ERA behind 13 walks in 17 2/3 innings. The Hawaiian southpaw can reach the mid-90s with his heater and an outstanding breaking ball, giving him a high floor as a left-handed specialist and a ceiling of a rotation regular.
Rockies RHP Ryan Castellani, Asheville – Castellani just turned 19 on April 1, so we’re bending the rules again, but whatever — I’m a rebel. The 6-foot-4 right-hander was a second-round pick in last summer’s Draft. He oozes projection but already has some things going his way, including command of three pitches. He posted a 3.65 ERA in 10 starts with Class A Short Season Tri-City last year.
Rockies 3B Kevin Padlo, Asheville – The California native was Colorado’s fifth-round pick last summer and made an outstanding debut with Grand Junction, batting .300/.421/.594 with eight homers. Padlo is a well below-average runner but has average-or-better tools across the board otherwise. He walked nearly as often as he struck out last year and could put up some impressive power numbers in Asheville’s hitter-friendly McCormick Field.
Red Sox RHP Michael Kopech, Greenville – Boston gave Kopech $1.5 million to sign as the 33rd overall pick in the 2014 Draft. The 6-foot-3 righty can generate big velocity and has a promising slider, but also uses a unique delivery and has struggled to work in the strike zone thus far. He’s so young that he could develop in a number of different directions, but should at least boast one of the most electric arms in the South Atlantic League this summer.
Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers, Greenville – Devers is as likely as any 18-year-old out there to jump up prospect lists this season, as the Dominican infielder has a massive power ceiling and enticing tools elsewhere. Boston jumped him from the Dominican Summer League to the Gulf Coast League midseason last year and he was outstanding in both leagues. The pace with which Boston is promoting him speaks to the teenager’s makeup and maturity.
Rangers SS Michael De Leon, Hickory – Signed for $550,000 out of the Dominican, De Leon is one of the most advanced youngsters in recent memory. He made an appearance in Double-A as a 17-year-old last summer but spent most of the year in Hickory, hitting .244 with 13 extra-base hits. De Leon is an outstanding defender at short but may be a merely fringe hitter. His makeup is so good and he’s still so young, though, that an offensive breakout could come at any time.
Royals OF Samir Duenez, Lexington – The Venezuelan outfielder actually played in 41 games with Lexington last year but won’t turn 19 until June. Duenez is not ranked among the Royals’ top prospects by MLB.com, largely because he’s a below-average runner who may have to play first base long-term. He’s shown promise offensively, though, making a lot of contact — he struck out in just 12.8 percent of plate appearances with the Legends last year. Listed at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, Duenez has the frame to add some strength. If that happens, he could develop into a Major League bat, although the defensive profile puts a lot of pressure on the stick to blossom.
Pirates SS Cole Tucker, West Virginia – Pittsburgh took the 6-foot-3 shortstop 24th overall in last summer’s Draft, making him one of the youngest players selected. Tucker will turn 19 in July and heads to the South Atlantic league after batting .267/.368/.356 in the GCL last year. The switch-hitter has shortened his swing and has a promising line-drive stroke as well as the skill to stick at shortstop going up the ladder.
